The Politics of Pension Reform in Ogun State: Between Fiscal Sustainability and Retiree Welfare

Abstract

Pension reform in Nigeria has increasingly been shaped by the tension between fiscal sustainability and retiree welfare, particularly in subnational contexts where implementation capacity varies significantly. This study examines the politics of pension reform in Ogun State, focusing on the transition from the Defined Benefit Scheme (DBS) to the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) and the introduction of the Additional Pension Benefit (APB). Drawing on documentary analysis of legal frameworks, regulatory reports, and stakeholder communications, the study triangulates competing narratives between government and retirees. To complement the qualitative analysis, quantitative simulations are employed to compare benefit outcomes under DBS and CPS+APB using policy-consistent assumptions. Findings reveal that while the CPS provides a structurally sustainable framework for pension financing, its effectiveness is undermined by historical lapses in remittance compliance, delays in funding accrued rights, and weak institutional enforcement. The APB, although significant as a transitional welfare measure, does not compensate for underfunded Retirement Savings Accounts (RSAs), particularly where investment returns have been foregone. The study argues that the Ogun pension dispute reflects deeper issues of institutional trust and governance credibility rather than purely technical disagreements over benefit adequacy. Sustainable reform, therefore, depends on transparent reconciliation of obligations, enforcement of compliance, and inclusive stakeholder engagement.