Impact of Climate Change Induced Flooding on Road Infrastructure Failure and Accident Causation Patterns across Nigerian Geopolitical Zones

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate change-induced flooding and road infrastructure deterioration and its cascading effects on traffic accident patterns across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Using a mixed-methods approach, it analyses meteorological data from 2010–2023, infrastructure assessments of 342 road segments, and records of 2,847 accident incidents. Geospatial analysis, structural equation modelling, and comparative zone analysis were used to test hypotheses regarding flood-infrastructure-accident relationships. Flood frequency significantly predicts road deterioration (β = 0.67, p < 0.001), and deteriorated infrastructure mediates the relationship between flooding and accident rates (indirect effect = 0.43, 95% CI [0.36, 0.51]). Regional variation is pronounced: South-South and South-East zones experience 73% and 68% higher accident rates respectively during flood seasons compared to dry periods. Road segments with recurrent flood exposure deteriorate 4.2 times faster and record 3.8 times higher accident frequencies than non-flood-prone areas. Forty-five stakeholder interviews identified institutional capacity gaps, inadequate drainage systems, and chronic maintenance underfunding as the primary exacerbating factors. These findings establish the climate-infrastructure-safety relationship as a public safety crisis in Nigeria, requiring adaptive infrastructure design, enhanced drainage, and region-specific interventions.