Modeling Temperature Forecast in Ogun State Nigeria with SARFIMA and SARIMA

Abstract

This studies aimed to assess the forecasting capabilities of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA) and Seasonal autoregressive fractional integral moving average (SARFIMA) models in modelling the weather prediction of Ogun State, Nigeria. The results indicate that the SARFIMA model outperforms SARIMA in terms of fit, serial correlation analysis, and accuracy measures. Forecast validation statistics confirmed the efficacy of the SARFIMA model, as demonstrated by various validation tools. Out-of-sample forecasts for 2019 to 2028 predict a steady rise in temperature, particularly in the Ijebu Ode axis compared to the Abeokuta region. This temperature increase suggests that climate change could significantly impact the livelihoods and economic sectors of Ijebu Ode and its surroundings if adequate preparations are not implemented.