Farmers’ Perceived Severity of Climate-Change Effects on Maize Production and Livelihood Outcomes in Northwest Nigeria

Abstract

The study assessed the perceived severity of climate-change effects on maize production and farmers’ livelihood outcomes in Northwest Nigeria. Multistage sampling was used to select 380 maize farmers from Kaduna, Kano and Katsina States from a sampling frame of 7,664 registered maize farmers. Primary data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, including means, standard deviations and rankings, while a composite Mean Severity Index (MSI) was used to assess perceived severity. The results revealed a pooled MSI of 4.14, indicating that climate-change effects were perceived as severe. Drought causing crop wilting and low productivity ranked first (mean = 4.45), followed by decreased maize yield due to rainfall changes (4.42) and late onset of rainfall affecting planting dates (4.39). Increased maize production costs ranked fourth (4.30), while soil erosion reducing soil fertility (4.24), increased pest and disease infestation (4.21), and reduced household food supply (4.18) were also prominent concerns. The state-level MSI values were 4.17 for Kaduna, 4.13 for Kano and 4.14 for Katsina, respectively. These descriptive results indicated that perceived severity scores were similar across the three states, although no statistical test of between-state differences was conducted. The study concluded that drought and rainfall-related challenges were the most severe perceived threats to maize production and farmers’ livelihood outcomes. It recommended strengthening agricultural extension delivery of timely climate information, promoting drought management and soil conservation practices, improving pest and disease management, and integrating climate adaptation advice with household food-security support.